From Boom to Bust: The Wild Ride of Cocoa Prices and West Africa's Farmers
Cocoa prices soared to record highs, then crashed by more than three quarters in barely a year. Behind the whipsaw sit millions of West African farmers and the two nations that grow most of the world's chocolate.
The story of chocolate begins far from any shop shelf, in the humid cocoa farms of West Africa. And over the past two years that story has been one of dizzying highs, brutal lows, and millions of farmers caught in the swings.
A record spike, then a crash
The price of cocoa has been on a rollercoaster few could have imagined. Having soared to nearly 13,000 dollars a tonne in 2024, it is reported to have plunged to around 3,000 dollars by early April 2026, a fall of more than 75 percent in barely a year.
The market has since found firmer ground. By the middle of July, cocoa is reported to have traded closer to 5,700 dollars a tonne, a partial recovery from the depths of the spring collapse.
More recently the mood has shifted again. Cocoa futures are reported to have climbed back above 6,200 dollars a tonne, as traders began to fret that the coming West African crop might fall short and leave the market tighter than expected.
Weather calls the tune
Much of the volatility traces back to the skies. Earlier in the year, favourable weather is reported to have produced bigger and healthier crops, leaving the global market on course for a sizeable surplus of several hundred thousand tonnes.
Then the rains came at the wrong time. In early July, heavy downpours are reported to have flooded cocoa farms in Ivory Coast and Ghana, with early surveys pointing to a weaker harvest for the 2026 and 2027 season ahead.
The farmers caught in the middle
Beneath the market drama sit real livelihoods. The wild price swings have landed hardest on the roughly 2.5 million smallholder farmers across West Africa who depend on cocoa to make their living.
For many, the crash has been bewildering. More than 700,000 tonnes of cocoa are reported to have become stuck with farmers in Ivory Coast, growers left uncertain what to do with a crop whose value had suddenly collapsed.
The cruel irony is that demand never went away. Farmers have struggled even as global appetite for chocolate remained strong, a mismatch that shows how little of the final price tends to reach those who grow the beans.
Two nations, one plan
The response has drawn the region's giants together. Ghana and Ivory Coast, which between them are reported to supply more than 60 percent of the world's cocoa, are trying to wield that dominance more deliberately.
In June the two signed a joint declaration. The agreement, reported to date from the 16th of that month, aims to align the price paid to farmers and to harmonise their crop calendars from the new season, a bid to steady a famously turbulent trade.
A sweeter deal, one day
Whether cooperation can tame the swings remains to be seen. But for the farmers who start the chocolate supply chain, a steadier and fairer price would be worth far more than any passing spike, however dramatic.
